Episode 1 Checklist — Why ML in Forex?

Case Study: EURUSD with SMA20 baseline

• Download historical EURUSD data (daily candles).
• Calculate a simple 20-day moving average (SMA20).
• Define baseline trading rule:
  • Buy if Close > SMA20
  • Sell if Close < SMA20
• Backtest rule on 6–12 months of data.
• Record results: accuracy, number of trades, net profit/loss.
• Note limitations (lagging, false signals, no risk management).
• Prepare data & rule summary for comparison with ML models in later episodes.

This checklist is for educational purposes only.